Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.363670 2.860863 3.420680 4.095241 4.883409 5.772487 6.848475
2025-04-27 1.716346 2.359939 3.165302 4.236700 5.612797 7.307938 9.539369
2025-05-04 1.344361 2.060133 3.038512 4.449432 6.403167 8.980089 12.596105
2025-05-11 1.029261 1.741456 2.795478 4.427395 6.838545 10.208025 15.194300
2025-05-18 0.774857 1.440262 2.501108 4.254260 7.000361 11.039560 17.300929
2025-05-25 0.584001 1.188412 2.222612 4.038924 7.040527 11.664583 19.135617
2025-06-01 0.473673 1.046074 2.089237 4.021663 7.366350 12.726112 21.693359
2025-06-08 0.394066 0.940102 1.995442 4.048546 7.754155 13.905591 24.520823
2025-06-15 0.325974 0.839221 1.889704 4.031903 8.055232 14.959246 27.221513
2025-06-22 0.253614 0.709161 1.700570 3.825353 7.984940 15.371101 28.882138
2025-06-29 0.211368 0.636579 1.613780 3.801262 8.239959 16.355950 31.578420
2025-07-06 0.176455 0.572067 1.531143 3.770453 8.473102 17.314076 34.292266
2025-07-13 0.161469 0.557387 1.561392 3.989320 9.234541 19.322328 39.070068
2025-07-20 0.143588 0.529655 1.555863 4.129248 9.852540 21.117539 43.602154
2025-07-27 0.131246 0.514796 1.579248 4.337889 10.635488 23.289706 48.986417
2025-08-03 0.110713 0.467463 1.509524 4.316557 10.922246 24.516218 52.673539
2025-08-10 0.088415 0.405816 1.387524 4.147305 10.861094 25.040003 55.042904
2025-08-17 0.069153 0.346791 1.258453 3.936753 10.677059 25.290247 56.883882
2025-08-24 0.058554 0.316517 1.206979 3.919883 10.939169 26.484450 60.680989
2025-08-31 0.050585 0.293723 1.173476 3.946175 11.306357 27.928240 65.076986
2025-09-07 0.042945 0.268901 1.127547 3.929901 11.566094 29.156828 69.105303
2025-09-14 0.033426 0.230065 1.023965 3.727945 11.333266 29.275668 70.810284
2025-09-21 0.028245 0.210267 0.982407 3.704391 11.556812 30.436363 74.806463